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Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33733/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T01:46Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 23:43
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 20:36
 - Radial speed: 1077.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: N01W41
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 729.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 01:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.18 hours)
Lead Time: 81.60 hour(s)
Difference: 44.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-10-04T12:36Z
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